Maryam Nawaz has completed her first year in office as the Chief Minister of Punjab, but the question remains whether she can reclaim the public support that PML-N has lost. Political analysts believe that as Chief Minister, she faces several challenges, the most significant of which is reviving the party’s popularity. After the 2024 elections, Nawaz Sharif appointed Maryam as Chief Minister with the primary objective of regaining lost political ground in Punjab, which had been the party’s stronghold for three decades. However, the rise of Imran Khan has drastically altered the province’s political dynamics.

Many analysts argue that PML-N’s decision to take charge of both the federal and Punjab governments has severely damaged its popularity. To meet the conditions of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and prevent an economic default, the government was forced to take unpopular decisions, which further alienated its voter base. Meanwhile, Imran Khan, despite being in jail, remains politically active, pushing the narrative that the Pakistan Democratic Movement (PDM) conspired with “foreign powers” and the establishment to oust him through a no-confidence vote. As a result, Khan has successfully retained his public support, whereas PML-N has had to justify its actions by claiming that it sacrificed its political capital to save the country from economic collapse.

For Maryam Nawaz, the biggest challenge is to reclaim the vote bank that has shifted to PTI. The Punjab government has spent billions on advertising campaigns over the past year, indicating that she is actively working to rebuild her image, particularly among women and young voters. She has been visiting educational institutions across Punjab, hoping to attract the youth who were once inspired by Imran Khan’s slogans and have become PTI’s strongest support base. However, it is still too early to determine whether she has succeeded in winning them over.

Analysts highlight that PML-N’s biggest weakness is its lack of a strong political narrative. Nawaz Sharif, once the face of the party, has remained largely silent since his return from the UK before the 2024 elections. Despite using his name and image during the campaign and even declaring him the next Prime Minister, the strategy failed to resonate with the electorate. These days, he is meeting with party leaders, but instead of shaping a new political message, he is focused on endorsing Maryam’s efforts. This appears to be an attempt to address concerns among party leaders who feel sidelined by Shehbaz Sharif and Maryam since returning to power.

As Chief Minister, Maryam has continued some projects initiated during Mohsin Naqvi’s caretaker tenure but has yet to launch a major development initiative of her own. Critics argue that she prioritizes media campaigns over actual governance, focusing more on personal branding than substantive policy work. Another issue is her limited working hours, reportedly from 10 AM to 4 PM, leaving Punjab effectively without a Chief Minister for the rest of the day. Nevertheless, compared to Usman Buzdar’s tenure, widely regarded as one of the most ineffective in Punjab’s history, Maryam’s performance appears relatively better.

However, her biggest challenges are yet to come. Rising inflation and unemployment have made life increasingly difficult for ordinary citizens. According to the World Bank, poverty levels in Pakistan are worsening, with 40.5% of the population living below the poverty line in 2024, a 7% increase from the previous year. Economic hardship, a surge in terrorism, controversial judicial reforms, repression of political opponents, and the government’s deference to the military establishment have all contributed to growing public frustration.

Analysts believe that the “Maryam factor” will only be effective if the overall economic situation improves. While she may have regained some of PML-N’s disillusioned voters or those who abstained in the last election, convincing PTI’s hardcore supporters remains a difficult task. Unless PML-N crafts a compelling narrative to counter PTI’s deep influence among the youth, the party risks electoral disaster in the next polls, which could also spell the end of Maryam Nawaz’s political ambitions.