Hassan Naqvi
A Constituency Where Politics Never Truly Settles
In Dera Ghazi Khan, politics is not just a contest — it is inheritance, memory, tribe, and negotiation all at once. For decades, NA-185 has been one of South Punjab’s most symbolically charged constituencies, alternating between the weight of tribal leadership and the pull of party structures. It is a seat where the vote is not only counted but remembered long after the election is over.
For years, the political story of this constituency revolved around two surnames — Khosa and Leghari. Their rivalry shaped its electoral history, its patronage networks, and even the way development funds were distributed. That old equilibrium was shattered in February 2024, when Zartaj Gul, running as an independent backed by PTI sentiment, stunned both clans and captured the seat with nearly 95,000 votes — a result few in DG Khan saw coming.
Her victory electrified younger, urban, women and first-time voters in the district. But her disqualification in 2025 has not only reopened the seat — it has brought the constituency back to its traditional fault line:
Sardar Dost Muhammad Khosa vs Mahmood Qadir Leghari.
The November 2025 by-poll is not just another election. It is a test of whether the old political order is returning — or whether the tremor of 2024 permanently changed the ground beneath it.
The Electoral Map: Half Urban, Half Tribal — and Fully Competitive
NA-185 is an unusual hybrid constituency. DG Khan city supplies the urban middle-class vote: teachers, traders, bank employees, medical staff, students, small business owners, and government officials. Just outside the city limits begin the tribal belts — Khosa-majority and Leghari-majority villages where sardars still mediate disputes, control land settlements, and deliver votes with a kind of political efficiency no party machinery can replicate.
Approx. registered voters: ~398,000
Turnout in 2024: just under 50%
Urban vote weight: ~55%
Rural / tribal bloc: ~45%
High turnout favours party candidates.
Low turnout favours tribal leadership.
By-elections, by nature, tend to produce lower turnout — which is why ground presence matters more than party manifestos.
And that is where the balance begins to tilt.
The 2024 Election and the Shock That Still Shapes the Race
The last election produced the following result:
Candidate Votes (Feb 2024)
Zartaj Gul (Independent — PTI backed) ~95,000
Mahmood Qadir Leghari (PML-N) ~33,000
Sardar Dost Muhammad Khosa (PPP) ~26,000
Both Khosa and Leghari agree on one thing: they didn’t lose to each other — they lost to her.
And now she is not on the ballot.
That creates the single most important mathematical question of this by-poll:
Where will the 95,000 PTI-aligned votes go — to someone, or to no one?
Political analysts in DG Khan say the PTI vote is unlikely to transfer to PML-N, given anti-government sentiment in the constituency. Some urban voters may abstain entirely. Others may look for the anti-PML-N alternative already present on the ground — which is Khosa.
Which is why the 2024 result, despite looking like a defeat for both traditional contenders, actually favours one of them more than the other now.
The Candidates: Two Real Contenders, Six Vote-Splitters
The final ECP list includes eight names, though the contest is widely understood to be a two-way race:
Candidate Party Core Vote Base
- Sardar Dost Muhammad Khan Khosa PPP Khosa tribe, urban PPP pockets, part of PTI vacuum, constituency-level presence
- Mahmood Qadir Khan Leghari PML-N Leghari vote bank, PML-N loyalists, govt employees
- Six Others (Independents) Mixed Fragmented ward margins, baradari-based pockets
Independent candidates — including Suhail Gilani, Nawab Ali Faisal Sadozai, and others — do not command constituency-wide vote banks but do bleed 1,500–4,000 votes each in specific union councils, which historically hurts PML-N more than PPP.
Tribal Politics and the Power Matrix
Unlike purely urban constituencies in Lahore, NA-185 is written in two scripts: party politics and tribal politics. In some parts of DG Khan, a party logo matters; in others, only a clan name does.
Power Bloc Strength
- Khosa tribe Historically strongest mobiliser in peri-urban DG Khan, controls dozens of polling stations
- Leghari tribe Strong in Choti, Fort Munro, and several rural wards; weaker in city limits
- PTI vote (orphaned) Mostly urban, mostly anti-PML-N, currently unaffiliated
- Professional class vote Split, but turns out only if campaigns are energetic
- Women voters Key to 2024 upset; turnout expected to decline in by-poll
Which means:
The candidate with the stronger on-ground vote-delivery machinery — not the louder party slogan — walks in with an advantage.
The Visibility Gap: One Candidate Stayed, One Candidate Left
This is the part every DG Khan-based reporter repeats without hesitation:
“Khosa never left the constituency. Leghari did.”
After the February 2024 election, locals say Khosa continued attending funerals, resolving land disputes, visiting hospitals, meeting traders, receiving delegations, and holding nightly baithaks. He was seen in public spaces even when there was no election calendar.
Leghari, meanwhile, has been largely absent, relying — in the words of a city journalist — “more on his PML-N ticket than his physical presence.”
In a general election, party strength can cover that deficit.
In a by-election, absence is expensive.
Because voters in DG Khan — whether urban or tribal — do not forget who shows up when there are no cameras.
Why Analysts Say Khosa Currently Has the Advantage
Not as endorsement — but as electoral arithmetic:
Factor Effect
- Lower turnout expected in by-poll Favors tribal vote machines like Khosa’s
- PTI vote has no candidate More likely to avoid PML-N than PPP
- Khosa physically presents for 9 months after election Builds obligation and continuity
- PML-N’s support depends on party, not candidate presence Reduces emotional turnout
- Independents cut into anti-PPP vote Helps Khosa by dividing challenger blocs
- Women’s turnout expected to drop from 2024 levels Hurts PML-N’s recovery strategy
Observers summarise it this way:
If turnout stays at 38–45%, Khosa has the structural advantage. If turnout crosses 50%, the race reopens.
What Each Camp Needs to Win
Khosa / PPP
Maximise turnout in Khosa-aligned bastis and peri-urban belts
Convert 25–40% of leaderless PTI vote
Keep women turnout from collapsing in city wards
Frame message as “access and presence,” not ideology
Leghari / PML-N
- Push urban middle-class turnout past 50%
- Rely on high-level PML-N leadership appearances
- Win professional and government-employee vote banks
- Try to split Baloch vote by prying elders away from Khosa
Election-Day Scenarios
- Scenario Likely Result
- Turnout below 40% Strong Khosa advantage
- Turnout 40–48% Competitive but Khosa still favoured
- Turnout 50%+ with women’s surge PML-N path opens
- PTI-aligned boycott PPP gains more than PML-N
- High independent vote Cuts PML-N more than PPP
What This By-Election Really Decides
The winner of NA-185 will not just take a seat — they will take a narrative.
If Khosa wins, PPP gains evidence that South Punjab is not closed terrain, and that tribal-plus-urban alignment can beat the ruling party even without a wave.
If PML-N wins, it strengthens the claim that PTI’s February 2024 vote has dissolved and that federal incumbency can still deliver seats beyond central Punjab.
If turnout collapses and the margin is narrow, it signals something else:
That DG Khan may now be a constituency where politics has more volatility than loyalty — and where the old order is back but not fully restored.
Final Outlook
No one in DG Khan believes this will be a landslide.
But almost every analyst agrees on one starting point:
Khosa begins this race ahead — not because his clan is stronger, but because he never stopped behaving like a candidate.
That is the difference in by-elections:
The ballot remembers the face it keeps seeing.
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