As the verdict on former DG ISI General Faiz Hameed’s court martial looms, Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) has intensified efforts for the release of its chairman, Imran Khan. Adopting a revised strategy during ongoing negotiations with the government, the PTI leadership has dropped its broader demands, focusing solely on two key objectives: securing Khan’s release and initiating judicial inquiries into the events of May 9 and November 26.

PTI’s tactical shift

Political insiders believe that PTI’s leadership aims to secure Imran Khan’s release first, trusting that once he is out of prison, other demands could be forced through street protests. However, government circles remain sceptical of PTI’s intentions due to its inconsistent policies, making trust-building elusive. Despite lofty claims from both sides, the lack of mutual confidence casts a shadow over the future of these negotiations.

The second round of talks between PTI and the government is scheduled for January 2. While the first meeting exhibited some flexibility, a lingering atmosphere of mistrust persists. Insiders predict the evolving political dynamics could introduce unexpected developments in the coming days.

Narrowing the demands

In the lead-up to the January 2 meeting, PTI has streamlined its demands, abandoning an earlier four-point agenda. PTI leader and former Speaker Asad Qaiser confirmed that Khan has directed negotiators to focus on two priorities: the unconditional release of PTI leaders and workers and the formation of a judicial commission, comprising senior Supreme Court judges, to investigate the May 9 and November 26 incidents.

Previously, PTI’s demands included repealing the 26th constitutional amendment, restoring “stolen mandates,” and releasing all political prisoners. Analysts view this shift as an attempt by Imran Khan to demonstrate flexibility in his stance.

The PML-N’s cautious stance

While PTI signals a willingness to negotiate, the ruling Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) exhibits a mix of scepticism and caution. Federal Defence Minister Khawaja Muhammad Asif, a senior PML-N leader, has advised the government to remain vigilant, stating, “We support dialogue but must remain cautious. Why has PTI suddenly agreed to negotiations when it previously refused to engage? This U-turn requires scrutiny.”

Asif noted that PTI’s retreat on earlier demands indicates potential shifts in the party’s strategy. However, he questioned the sincerity of PTI’s intentions and advised the government to tread carefully.

Analysts’ insights

Senior journalist Nusrat Javeed remarked that by limiting its demands, PTI has for the first time shown flexibility. He speculated that consensus on forming a judicial commission to investigate the November 26 incident is plausible, given fatalities occurred on both sides.

Meanwhile, analyst Arifa Noor argued that PTI’s primary goal remains Khan’s release, with the party expecting to achieve other objectives through subsequent protests. Noor highlighted the government’s apprehension about Khan’s release, as it could pave the way for new elections, posing a significant challenge to the ruling coalition. Additionally, there is speculation about potential pressure from the US, especially following Donald Trump’s election as President, which could influence the situation.

As the January 2 meeting approaches, both PTI and the government are recalibrating their strategies. While PTI is narrowing its focus to Imran Khan’s release and judicial inquiries, the ruling coalition remains wary of PTI’s intentions, aware of the broader political implications tied to Khan’s potential return to the streets.