The Future Of Iran-Israel Conflict

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Iran has fired nearly three hundred missiles at Israel. This is the first direct war between Iran and Israel. Before this, Iran has never attacked Israeli territory. Iran launched this missile attack in response to the attack on the Iranian embassy in Damascus by Israel.

The question is whether Iran has won the first phase of the war against Israel by firing three hundred missiles. It is true that after firing three hundred missiles, Iran has announced that it will not launch further attacks on Israel and considers the matter closed. But the question remains whether Israel considers the matter closed as well. Now, it remains to be seen how and when Israel responds. Does Israel remain silent or escalate the situation?

In the opinion of many friends, Iran has gained the leadership of the Muslim Ummah by attacking Israel. I don’t think that’s the case. For six months, the killing of Palestinians has been ongoing in Gaza. Israel has started ethnic cleansing of Palestinians in Gaza, children are being martyred, hospitals are being bombed, young people are being killed, but Iran has not fired a single missile for the Palestinians.

Instead, we have seen considerable silence from Iran regarding this entire issue. Iran did attack Israel when Israel attacked Iranians and killed an Iranian general at the Iranian embassy, but Iran did not attack Israel for the Palestinians. It is true that not only Iran but all Muslim countries have remained silent. Turkey and Recep Tayyip Erdogan have also remained silent, Saudi Arabia and all Arab countries have also remained silent. Therefore, it is not correct to single out Iran for remaining silent. However, it is also necessary to clarify that the recent attacks by Iran have no relation to the Palestine-Israel conflict.

Iran’s firing of three hundred missiles was not sudden for Israel and its allies. They were fully prepared for this attack. Now Iran also admits that before this attack, it had gained the confidence of many countries including America. They were told that we are going to launch missiles on Israel. Therefore, the world knew when and how many missiles Iran would launch. Therefore, this attack was not a surprise for Israel and its allies. Perhaps that’s why the other side was also fully prepared. It is said that ninety-five percent of the missiles were destroyed in flight.

It is also being said that despite firing such a large number of missiles, Israel has not suffered any significant damage. No major military losses have occurred. It is true that the airspace of five countries – America, Britain, France, Jordan, and Israel – together prevented these missiles from reaching Israel and destroyed them in flight. But it is also seen that these five countries had a good estimate of this attack and were prepared to stop it in the air.

The important question is whether Iran wanted to attack Israel with missiles on the one hand and also tried not to escalate the situation on the other. Therefore, Iran estimated that if Israel did not suffer much damage, the situation would not escalate but remain under control. But then the question arises, why was it necessary to fire three hundred missiles? Could one or two missiles have been fired? Did Iran estimate that they would be stopped and they were trying to reach Israel? Both sides have strong arguments. Nevertheless, on the one hand, Iran attacked, on the other hand, diplomatic efforts were made to ensure that the situation did not escalate beyond a certain point.

Therefore, no resolution against Iran could be passed in the Security Council immediately after this attack. This meeting was called at the request of Israel. But there was no environment in the Security Council to immediately pass a resolution condemning Iran.

We can say that due to Iran’s successful diplomacy, the Security Council did not see an environment where an immediate resolution condemning Iran could be passed. But it is also important that after Iran’s attack, Israel’s supporters, have strongly condemned Iran, but Islamic countries have used very cautious language.

America and Western countries have taken another interesting position. They have said that if Israel attacks Iran, Western countries, including America, will not be part of this attack. But if Iran attacks Israel, Israel’s defense will be ensured. Therefore, if there is an attack by Iran, it will be countered. However, Israel will not attack Iran with the help of Western countries.

Now the question is what will Israel do? One opinion is that now Israel will at least remain silent towards Iran. Israel will not try to get entangled with Iran again. But it is difficult for me to understand. First of all, if we look at it, the victories Israel had achieved in Gaza through the conquests have been nullified by Iran’s attack. The Israeli government’s conquest has ended.

Therefore, it will be necessary for Israel to respond to Iran. Therefore, I do not consider the matter closed. Israel will launch a retaliatory attack. When, this question is important. If Iran can take ten days to respond, then Israel can also take some days. But a response will be given. Is it now Iran’s turn after Palestine? Has a decision been made to wage war against Iran like Iraq and Libya, and an environment is being created for it? Is this an indication to Israel, especially from the West, especially America, to start a war with Iran, ‘We will defend you’? If this is the case, then the war has reached Pakistan’s border.

Now, how severe will Israel’s response be? If Israel also fires three hundred missiles in response, then Iran will not have the capability to stop those three hundred missiles. Five countries will also not stop Iran from firing those three hundred missiles. What will happen then? However, the situation will become clear in the next few days. If indeed a decision has been made to wage war against Iran, then Iran has made a mistake by remaining silent in the Palestinian war. They should have estimated that it is their turn next. It is also said that Hezbollah, Palestine, and Hamas have remained silent in defense. But will Iran also remain silent? This is also worth seeing.

Note: This is the translation of his Urdu column published in Daily Express.

 

Muzamal Suharwardy
Muzamal Suharwardy
The writer is a senior journalist and analyst.

1 COMMENT

  1. The situation between Iran and Israel is highly complex and continually evolving. Iran’s response by launching missiles following the attack on its consulate shows the severe tensions in the region. With both nations prepared for further escalations, the international community remains on edge, watching closely how these developments could impact broader regional stability. What are your thoughts on the potential outcomes of this conflict?

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